In 2026, China's domestic PVC raw material market maintains a fluctuating upward pattern throughout the year, with calcium carbide serving as the core cost support. Most domestic PVC capacity relies on the calcium carbide process. Affected by coal prices, power regulation in major producing regions and equipment maintenance, calcium carbide supply stays tight with firm prices, lifting the overall price of PVC resin. The price peaked near 4600 RMB per ton in March, while spot prices hover around 4700 RMB per ton with minor fluctuations in September. Ethylene-based PVC follows swings in international crude oil and faces similar cost pressure. Most PVC manufacturers operate at a loss, and some facilities reduce operating loads or shut down for maintenance, leading to periodic supply contraction.
For the PVC rain boot industry, besides PVC resin powder, plasticizers and stabilizers essential for soft products also see price hikes. DOP, DOTP and other plasticizers quote higher prices driven by raw materials including phthalic anhydride and isooctyl alcohol. Orders for Europe must adopt low-phthalate eco-friendly additives, and such compliant additives command an even higher premium, further boosting unit production costs of rain boots.
In terms of demand, overall downstream demand for PVC remains weak. Rain boot factories mainly receive foreign trade export orders, while domestic civilian orders stay sluggish. Most rain boot manufacturers adopt a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy and keep raw material inventories low to avoid risks of price declines. This creates challenges for foreign trade quotations. Frequent raw material volatility makes costs uncontrollable for long-cycle orders, so enterprises have to shorten quotation periods, and many orders only accept short-term pricing.
In addition to rising raw material prices, export policies also exert impacts. Starting in April, export tax rebates for PVC powder were cancelled, raising export costs of upstream raw materials and indirectly affecting domestic supply circulation. Besides coping with raw material price hikes, foreign trade rain boot enterprises must meet testing requirements such as EU REACH, low lead limits and PFAS restrictions. Raw materials for compliant formulas come at extra cost. PVC raw materials are likely to keep fluctuating at high levels in the short run. When accepting orders, enterprises need to reserve buffer for raw material price changes, prioritize short-term orders and batch procurement to reduce loss risks brought by raw material market swings.
